September 2017 UK Mortgage and BOE consumer credit data 30 October 2017

  • Prior 66,580
  • Mortgage lending 3.848bn vs 4.041bn prior. Revised to 3.929bn
  • BOE consumer credit 1.606bn vs 1.500bn exp. Prior 1.583bn. Revised to 1.760bn
  • (of which) Credit card lending 641m vs 436m prior. Revised to 318m
  • Lending to non-financials -1.389bn vs -4.998bn prior. Revised to -5.214bn
  • (of which) SME’s 438m vs -41m prior. Revised to -94m
  • M4 money supply -0.2% vs 1.1% prior m/m. Revised to 0.9%
  • 4.8% vs 4.4% prior y/y
  • M4 ex-financials 0.1% vs 1.0% prior m/m. Revised to 0.8%
  • 4.6% vs 5.2% prior. Revised to 5.1%

Consumer and mortgage lending stay relatively strong and that gives the BOE something to think about ahead of Thursday. A BOE hike won’t be that impactful on UK households as only some 30% have mortgages. That won’t mean that those 30% won’t get hit hard by a rise in interest rates but people have had plenty of time to switch mortgages into lower rates. Indeed, some 60% of mortgages are now at fixed rates. GBPUSD hasn’t done much but it fell 10 odd pips from 1.3163 and recovered the same.

Ryan Littlestone

Psychedelic chartist extraordinaire. Have your shades ready.
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”

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Ryan Littlestone

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