All the big banks now see a high chance of a hike at the January BOC meeting on the 17th

“The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly Business outlook survey is healthy enough to convince us that the bank is likely to hike rates as early as next week’s decision” says  a note from the bank.

After last weeks jobs report, CIBC said;

“In our judgement, that should be enough to see the Bank of Canada hike rates later this month”

They join Scotia Bank and TD Securities in seeing a hike on the jobs numbers.

With all the expectations ramping up for next week, that leaves the greater price risk on an unchanged decision. With Poloz now not in favour of tipping the nod on policy action via forward guidance, he’s got a good chance of giving the market a bloody nose next week. There’s going to be a huge amount of CAD longs and one small exit door if they don’t hike.

My early thoughts for a trade is to set a buy stop 50 pips above the spot price seconds before the announcement on the basis they don’t hike.

Ryan Littlestone

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