December 2017 UK public sector finance data 23 January 2018

  • Prior 8.118bn
  • Ex-banks 2.591bn vs 5.000bn exp. Prior 8.694bn
  • PSNCR 25.130bn vs 12.933bn prior
  • Central gov NCR 18.8bn vs 12.3bn prior

Good numbers.

  • PSNB Ex Banks fell 6.6B to 50.0B vs same period 2016; lowest YTD net borrwoing since 2007
  • The atypical EU credit of 1.2B due to budget amendments; largest credit received by UK on record
  • VAT receipts of 12.3B highest amount for a December or any month
  • Carillion’s insolvency not an immediate factor and will play out over coming months
  • OBR forecasts for 2017/18 borrowing stand at 49.9B

The VAT receipts coming in at the highest on record is good news, and we’ve had a bonus from the EU budget adjustment. That means we could see that wash out next month but, January is a big tax month for self-employed folks to pony up the dough, and that will be a good indicator of finances at the lower end of the business scale.

Not  much of a move in GBP but cable has ticked up from that 1.3940 level to 1.3951.

Ryan Littlestone

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