EU commission raises growth forecasts – 2018 GDP 2.3% vs 2.1% prior

by | February 7th, 2018, 11:37:00 | Economic Data | 0 comments

EU commission raises growth forecasts – 2018 GDP 2.3% vs 2.1% prior

Details of the latest forecasts from the EU 7 February 2018

  • 2017 EZ GDP Growth: 2.4% (Nov. estimate 2.2%; ECB 2.4%)
  • 2018 EZ GDP Growth: 2.3% (Nov. estimate 2.1%; ECB 2.3%)
  • 2019 EZ GDP Growth: 2.0% (Nov. estimate 1.9%; ECB 1.9%)
  • 2017 EZ HICP 1.5% (Nov. estimate 1.5%; ECB 1.5%)
  • 2018 EZ HICP 1.5% (Nov. estimate 1.4%; ECB 1.4%)
  • 2019 EZ HICP 1.6% (Nov. estimate 1.6%; ECB 1.5%)

Comments:

  • Core inflation is expected to stay subdued as labour market slack recedes only slowly and wage pressures remain contained.
  • Headline inflation will continue to reflect the significant influence of energy prices.
  • Risks to this growth forecast remain broadly balanced.
  • Growth could exceed expectations in the short term due to high level of sentiment.
  • Downside risks include uncertain outcome of Brexit talks, geopolitical tensions, a shift toward more inward-looking and protectionist policies
  • In the medium term, high global asset prices could be vulnerable to a re-assessment of risks and fundamentals.
Ryan Littlestone

Ryan Littlestone

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