BOE’s Carney, Broadbent, Haldane and Tenreyro all seem to be singing from the same hymn sheet


  • Does not commit to a specific rate path
  • Does not give guidance on a specific rate path except in exceptional circumstances
  • We are not in exceptional circumstances now
  • Trade off between growth and inflation has diminished
  • Further stimulus withdrawal is needed in coming years
  • Horizon to bring back inflation to target has in moved from 3 years but has not jumped to 2 years in MPC’s collective view


  • Degreee of UK spare capacity has shrunk
  • Squeeze on real household income is past its worst
  • Rise in import costs will continue to feed into the retail space
  • Wage growth looks to be picking up


  • To justify rate rises, we’ll be looking for the econ to continue to hold up at around last years growth levels
  • We need to see an upward nudge in price pressures and especially wage growth early in 2018
  • Judges risk of the MPC current forecasts to the upside


  • Tightening of rates is likely to be stronger than anticipated in Nov

Cable has jumped to 1.3961 from near 1.3930 as the comments are all pretty hawkish. The fact it’s not flying away suggests that the market has just about priced in a May hike.

Ryan Littlestone

Pin It on Pinterest