BOE’s Dave Ramsden speaking in Cambridge

  • Pace of productivity influences what happens to inflation
  • Most recent data show signs of productivity growth rising in the second half of 2017
  • Still no confirmation that productivity pickup is sustained in the near-term
  • UK business investment has been unusually weak relative to past recoveries
  • MPC’s judgement is that productivity growth will settle at just over 1% over the next three years
  • MPC’s view is that the economy’s speed limit is likely to be around 1½%
  • There are significant risks in both directions to the outlook for productivity
  • Naturally lower productivity growth, and dampening effect of Brexit are risks to productivity
  • A clearer transition path and future trading arrangements post-Brexit, could reduce uncertainty
  • Latest evidence from Bank’s Decision Maker Panel Survey suggests impact of Brexit holding back business investment growth may be less in 2018 than 2017

Nothing outside of the box from Ramsden. GBPUSD has continued to recover from the earlier blip. 1.3979 trading.

Ryan Littlestone

Psychedelic chartist extraordinaire. Have your shades ready.
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”

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Ryan Littlestone

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