Press conference of the March 2018 ECB meeting with Mario Draghi

  • We still kept our message that we are prepared to run QE past the end date if needed and that we will continue to re-invest
  • There wasn’t much discussion about other possible changes
  • Policy will continue to be reactive

Pouring some cold water that this was a significant language change

EURUSD now goes into reverse and is back under 1.2400

  • Policy will continue to be reactive
  • Immediate spillover from US tariffs won’t be big
  • We are concerned about the state of international relations
  • If tariffs are on friends, who are the enemies
  • In judging the impact, will there be an impact on FX and on confidence
  • Fiscal sustainability is of utmost concern regarding Italy

Here’s the highlights from his opening statement;

  • Growth to rise faster than expected
  • Underlying inflation is still subdued
  • We will monitor FX developments
  • ECB sees 2018 GDP at 2.4% vs 2.3% prior
  • 2019 1.9% unch
  • 2020 1.7% unch
  • Downside risks include developments in FX and rising protectionism
  • CPI 2018 1.4% unch
  • 2019 1.4% vs 1.5% prior
  • 2020 1.7% unch
Ryan Littlestone

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