Forex levels to watch over the US and Canadian jobs data

by | January 4th, 2019, 13:09:51 | Technical Analysis

Technical analysis

Here are the forex levels and tech to keep an eye on over the upcoming data

Two jobs reports today and both could be lively. Here’s the levels I’ll be watching.

USDJPY

Up

  • 111.30/40 – Resistance in the main final trading week/days before Christmas
  • 110.90 – S&R around the same period
  • 110.80 – S&R
  • 110.45/50 – End-Dec res
  • 110.20 – Prior supp
  • 110.00 big fig res
  • 109.40/45 – Old S&R area that became res on the way down
  • 109.00/10 – Minor S&R
  • 108.70 – Minor S&R
  • 108.40/50 – Old S&R and broken 61.8 fib of the March 2018 rally

Down

  • 107.50 – Has been a minor supp level after the flash crash
  • 107.00 – Should hold firmer supp
  • 106.60/80 – Held support after the crash steadied
  • 106.30/40 – Possible support from prior S&R action Feb/Mar 2018
  • 106.00 – Big fig support
  • 105.50 – Same light S&R from Feb/Mar period

The downside is the least clear of the two sides. For any big data swings, we might have to rely purely on the PA to show us where the levels are.

EURUSD

Up

  • 1.1586 – 61.8 fib of Sep 2018 drop
  • 1.1550 – Prior S&R. 200 DMA 1.1553
  • 1.1530 – More mild S&R
  • 1.1515 – 50.0 fib of Sep 2018 drop
  • 1.1500 – Big fig res
  • 1.1475/80 – Late Dec res. 55 MMA
  • 1.1461 – 100 DMA
  • 1.1440 – Minor res
  • 1.1420 – Current res

Down

  • 1.1380 – Minor supp
  • 1.1371 – 55 DMA
  • 1.1340 – Prior supp
  • 1.1300/15 – Big fig supp. 1.1315 200 WMA
  • 1.1265/70 – Late Nov/Early Dec supp
  • 1.1215 – 2018 Low and protection of major support at 1.1200

The 1.1300 & 1.1265/70 areas would be my choice levels to fade any NFP moves, while 1.1500 would be my topside level. There’s sizeable stops at 1.1500 so I’ll be thinking about a stop reverse into a long if that breaks.

USDCAD

Up

  • 1.3560 – Late Dec/Early Jan supp
  • 1.3540/45 – Minor S&R
  • 1.3500/10 – S&R and big fig
  • 1.3485/90 – Res this week. 100 H4MA
  • 1.3465/70 – Minor S&R

Down

  • 1.3415/20 – Oct channel bottom. Prior S&R
  • 1.3400 – Big Fig
  • 1.3380/85 – S&R
  • 1.3365/75 – S&R. 1.3371 55 H4MA
  • 1.3320/30 – S&R
  • 1.3290-1.3300 Big fig and prior S&R
  • 1.3263 – S&R

Most of the levels above can be used for the jobs numbers and then for Powell after, depending on what the scene looks like. We could get a muted reaction in USD, as there’s increased focus on Powell. One thing is for certain, the reaction to bad news will be bigger than good news as we saw yesterday with ADP vs the ISM.

As always, stay safe and let the dust settle before seeing what opportunities there are.

Ryan Littlestone
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