UK CPI comes in a touch softer in January 2019

January 2019 UK CPI, PPI, RPI price inflation data 13 February 2019

• CPI 1.8% vs 1.9% exp y/y. Prior 2.1%
• -0.8% vs -0.7% exp m/m. Prior 0.2%
• Core CPI 1.9% vs 1.9% exp/Prior y/y
• -0.8% vs -0.8% exp m/m. Prior 0.3%
• CPIH 1.8% vs 1.9% exp y/y. Prior 2.0%
• RPI -0.9% vs -0.8% exp m/m. Prior 0.4%
• 2.5% vs 2.6% exp y/y. Prior 2.7%
• RPI Ex-mortgage payments -0.9% vs 0.4% prior m/m
• 2.5% vs 2.7% prior y/y
• HPI 2.5% vs 2.5% exp y/y. Prior 2.8%. Revised to 2.7%

PPI

• Input -0.1% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior -1.0%
• 2.9% vs 3.8% exp y/y. Prior 3.7%
• Output 0.0% vs 0.0% exp m/m. Prior -0.3%
• 2.1% vs 2.2% exp y/y. Prior 2.5%
• Core output 0.4% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.2%
• 2.4% vs 2.3% exp y/y. Prior 2.5%

Overall, not much to say about it. CPI was softer as expected and tipped by Carney. PPI was much softer than expected but even that isn’t unexpected (and it’s a much more volatile number).

Energy prices led the way as gas, electricity and others fell, that was partially offset by rising airfares.

This cements the BOE’s position and inflation isn’t too far from target anyway. If we see it dropping right down to sub 1.5% for both the headline and the core, that might be a different scenario for the BOE.

GBPUSD briefly nicked a new low at 1.2883 but is back at 92.

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Ryan Littlestone

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