The latest market worry is that May can’t put a motion forward for a third meaningful vote
The press are starting to jump all over House of Commons speaker Bercow’s statement on the third meaningful vote. Let’s get the facts straight first.
- Bercow has only given the procedural precedence for putting forward the same motion. He has not said it cannot ever be presented again
- May hasn’t even put forward a motion for a third vote, and won’t until/unless she gets the DUP backing it, which by proxy will mean the deal (UK-side declarations/legal context) has potentially changed
- At most, if the DUP are on board, it may need a cursory nod from the EU but probably nothing at all
- What we’re likely to get is another bolt-on document or legal advice that’s purely between the DUP and government but that will be added to the rest of the points in the Brexit motion already, and it will be from that point that the speaker will make a decision on whether he allows it for a third vote
So far we’ve had legal people speaking on the BBC saying there would have to be new sessions of Parliament called and other nonsensical headlines saying May must change the deal (which she’s trying to do anyway). The long and short is that the actual Withdrawal Agreement still hasn’t changed since last November and everything else has been bolted on the side. Expect this to go the same way.
What is materially affected by all this is the timeline, as the longer there’s no deal with the DUP, the more the risk is that we’re late getting a third vote in time for the EU summit, and also that an extension call would need to be made pretty soon too. That call is being held off until May knows what’s going on with the DUP.
We may end up in situation whereby we don’t even get a third vote this week or ever again, and then the other outcomes (no-deal, extension, no-Brexit) take over.
In my opinion, we’ll hear what’s happening with the DUP sometime between now and over the next 12-24 hours and we’ll then know what’s happening.
Regarding what that means for GBP, if talks break down, that’s a big negative, if there’s a deal, that’s positive, then we move on to how that might move forward regarding a third vote.
Again, we’re working on one step at a time.