Just some speculative thoughts

Boris calling for an election while giving MP’s time to debate and pass the WAB does 2 things;

  1. If the election and WAB votes pass, Boris wins. He gets Brexit done and a huge election pitch.
  2. If he doesn’t get the election, he still might get his deal done (which then might lead to a future election anyway).

In both cases the pressure is on Labour (and Parliament in general) because they’re running out of reasons to say no to everything. But, he could get neither also. However, it’s strange that Boris is pushing ahead with all this when we still haven’t got confirmation on the extension from the EU. Has Boris told them not to issue an extension length until Labour has made their decision on an election?

Why might he have done that?

Because, if Labour say no to an election, and still say no to the Brexit deal, there’s no reason for the EU to give an extension, or at most only a short extension (maybe if Labour shows new commitment to passing the WAB), because any extension would be pointless if Parliament is only going to continue going around in circles. That would bring no-deal 31st Oct back on the table but then that would also bring pressure to pass the deal instead.

At every turn, Corbyn ( & Parliament) is blocked from saying no because Boris is cutting the strings on every which way they can squirm after. At some point it could all boil down, once again, to deal or no-deal.

I’m very open to hearing differing views and being challenged on this, it is just my own 10 pence view but if this is what Boris is doing, it’s a very, very smart play. That makes it all very positive for GBP, save for the possible increased no-deal risk, whcih Parliament is still very scared of anyway.



Ryan Littlestone

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