German economic institutes raise GDP, lower CPI in Autumn 2017 forecasts

The Autumn forecasts from a collective of German ecnomic institutes 28 September 2017

GDP

• 2017 Real GDP 1.9% vs 1.5% prior
• 2017 H1 GDP 2.5%
• 2017 adjusted GDP 2.2% vs 1.8%. Highest since 2010
• 2018 GDP  2.0% vs 1.8% prior
• 2018 adjusted GDP 2.1%
• 2019 GDP 1.9%

CPI

• 2017 1.7% vs 1.8% prior
• 2018 1.7% unch
• 2019 1.8%

Comments

• Germany’s very high growth dynamic in H1 to weaken slightly in H2
• German economic output to show stronger gains in 2017, 2018 than production capacity growth
• Seeing the first signs of tension in some sectors of the economy
• ECB should, in the shoprt-term, announce tapering of QE from beginning of next year if economic conditions remain favourable
• ECB should prepare exit from its ultra loose mon pol, especially from its unconventional measures
• Next German government should focus on income tax reform

Did we expect anything less from those comments?

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