US PCE data due at 12.30 GMT

The PCE data is one of the Fed’s go-to indicators for watching inflation and we get the latest monthly numbers for August shortly.


  • PCE 1.5% exp vs 1.4% prior y/y
  • Core PCE 1.4% exp vs 1.4% prior y/y
  • Personal incomes 0.2% exp vs 0.4% prior m/m
  • Spending 0.1% exp vs 0.3% prior m/m

Any miss in the y/y PCE numbers is likely to see the dollar soften. A 1pp miss might not do much but 2pp or more and we’ll get something more substantial. USDJPY looks firmly supported at 112.40 but it won;t be a mtach for a bad number.

Conversely, a beat on the numbers and we could get another run towards the highs, and maybe even 113.00 if it’s strong enough. With large offers sitting there, that makes the level a good one to watch for signs of a post-data top.

Ryan Littlestone

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