October 2017 US non-farm payrolls and employment report 03 November 2017
- Prior -33k. Revised to +18k
- Average hourly earnings 0.0% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.5%
- 2.4% vs 2.7% exp y/y. Prior 2.9%. Revised to 2.8%
- Average workweek hours 34.4 vs 34.4 exp. Prior 34.4
- Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.2% exp
- Participation rate 62.7% vs 63.1 exp. Prior 63.1%
- U6 underemployment 7.9% vs 8.3% prior
- Private payrolls 252k vs 303k exp. Prior -40k. Revised to +15k
- Manufacturing payrolls 24k vs 15k exp. Prior -1k. Revised to +6k
- Government payrolls 9k vs 7k prior. Revised to 3k
Much worse than expected and it’s hit USDJPY down to 113.62. The saving grace is the upward revisions put payrolls inot a positive and the unemplyment rate falling (though that comes along with the drop in the participation rate).
The best idea would be to take both Sep and Oct reports as one, as we don’t know how much weather skew is in here. Wages were said to be up on over-time weather clean up, so they might have washed out now.Take an average and we have
2.45%(need to check my maths in future) 2.6% vs 2.7% in Aug. That’s not that bad, a minor miss.. Take the headline payrolls 261k and the revised 15k and we average 138k. Soft but not disastrous.
For me there’s nothing here to tip the Fed out of a hike, or to bring big fears of them pulling back.
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Wages and participation rate pretty ugly …
All in all I’m surprised that USDJPY is still stuck in the same tight range 113.5 114.5 after a week with NFP, BoJ, FOMC, a new Fed Chair, the best ever tax reform the world has ever seen (many people sooo impressed with it). Doesn’t look like it want to break out today either. Anyway, let’s see
Hi mate. Sorry for the late reply. I don’t think the wages were that bad (after my initial cock up with the average). 2.6% avg Sep/Oct vs 2.7% in Aug isn’t too shabby when you add in some hurricanes.
yes averaged it’s not so bad. A good ISM helping too …
Good numbers from both ISM and factory orders/durables. Bit of a late reaction though.
Hi 5m,I’m long USDJPY after ISM, but there’s a “fear factor” still playing in JPY. Trump visiting Asia, Lil’ Kim could start to roar his little ugly head again. Although I reckon China will keep him quiet since they’re meeting Potus as well. Monday could be the real trigger for action if we manage a peaceful weekend.
Yep, trying right now the highs … perhaps not breaking on a friday but let’s see. Next week could be the good one but NK could get back in play as you say K-man. Already back in play a bit with some headlines yesterday …
That 114.40/50 is a tough nut, a break will be equally thorough when it’ll go imo. I left some add ons through the 50 mark
Key moment here in USDJPY. Looking long term in the monthly there is this channel/trend line AND Ichi cloud. A break and confirm on a retest would signal a good move up say to 118/120. Otherwise a huge triple top and down pretty fast.
This week looks over tho, barring whatever news.
Good weekend to everybody
Agreed. It’s a big big level up here and there’s also a barrier at 114.50. If we do get a break, it could be a big one. AS you say, it depends how far traders want to push it so close to the weekend.
The cloud is a big indicator for yen traders but I’ll defer to the expertise of Kman who’s our cloud expert. He’s always got his head in them 😉
It’s nice cloud too, in theory there should be some work to be done to break the top as it’s a thick one. 115.75/85 would be a good level to tp some initially and re-enter if we get the break of that top. Japanese will indeed have spotted that one . It could be the trigger for investors to jump on the train if risk assets behave well at the same time. It’ll be a case to trade the Asian sessions if we’re hovering around.