UK labour market report 15 November 2017

  • Prior 1.7k
  • Sep 2017 ILO unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% exp. Prior 4.3%
  • Sep average weekly earnings 2.2% vs 2.1% exp 3m y/y. Prior 2.2%. Revised to 2.3%
  • Ex-bonus 2.2% vs 2.2% exp 3m y/y. Prior 2.1%. Revised to 2.2%
  • Vacancies 780k vs 786k prior 3m.
  • Q3 2017 output per hour 0.9% vs -0.1% q/q in Q2. Fastest q/q growth since Q2 2011
  • Q3 2017 output per worker 0.4% vs -0.1% q/q in Q2.

From the ONS;

  • Employment has fallen for the first time since October 2016 and largest drop since Apr-Jun 2015(-45K)
  • The employment rate fell 0.1% 3M to Sep, but still up 0.6% versus a year ago
  • Real wages still negative on an annual basis, both total and ex-Bonus fell, -0.5% and 0.4% respectively
  • Vacancies rose 6K on the quarter to 780K
  • Inactivity rate rose 117K (0.3%) on the quarter to 8.86M (21.6%)
  • Q3 productivity growth rate strongest for 6-years, however only up 0.6% over 12-months

It’s not an overly bullish report especially given the wage numbers and revisions. The only real positive is from the quarterly productivity numbers.

It’s too early to call the drop in employment a problem as it’s been on such a strong run but if the UK strings a few more losses together, it will start to change the view of the jobs market.

GBPUSD hasn’t done much. It rode up to 1.3213 but is back below 1.3200 by a handful of pips. Once this data washes out we’ll go back to playing the trend du jour.

Ryan Littlestone

Pin It on Pinterest