AUDUSD is looking well bid this morning and I like the looks of shorts into 0.7700
AUDUSD is knocking around the old recent support area that contained the break under 0.7700, and has now formed as resistance.
AUDUSD daily chart
The 0.7630/50 area contains a fair bit of traffic and a move above will bring 0.7700 back into play. That’s been a S&R area going back over 2 years. The 0.77 area is joined by some other tech too. The 200 dma is at 0.7695 and the 200 H4 ma at 0.7697. Given the strength sitting there, I’m liking the look of shorts into that level, with a stop above the most recent highs around 0.7730. I jobbed the long side when it was support with some success so I’m looking to play the level again.
I’ve also taken a small short here at 0.7642 with a very tight stop above 0.7650, just to job this resistance area. I’m looking for 0.7625 but I’ll play it by ear.
The biggest risk this week for commod currencies is obviously the OPEC meeting, which kicks off on Thursday.
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”
Read how Ryan got into trading here
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Nice call there Ryan on the short. Working your magic really well
Thanks JB. Just taken half off at 0.7633. Was looking for 32 for half but I’m not being a dick for a tick when I’m jobbing it. Will move my stop down a bit too.
I keep an eye at AUDJPY (key pair for AUD flows) for my AUDUSD trades. As long as 84.5 is not properly broken I remaiìn bullish on AUDUSD. If 84.5 resists now that 111 is gone, we’re going for a ride up to 0.773 and the bottom would be nicely in place
Also I took a short on that pesky WTI this morning at 58.6 … I don’t want a break of 59 retest and hold
Noted re you AUDJPY. I’ve heard it’s a big level.
I’m so twitching to sell oil but I also want to be greedy and grab a knee jerk higher. Decisions decisions eh?
Oil could do a b*astard spike up on OPEC I reckon, even if it disappoints, that’s why I don’t have a big position. I’ll be able to go through it and add if we go a bit over 60 but after that it must start to show a bearish bias or I will be out. As I said it’s ok another leg up from here but I don’t want it to hold on the retest. On the other hand ready to add on a proper break on the downside
I’m leaning that way to mate. I’m thinking of giving it around a $5 boundary from entry, i.e short up to $5 higher in small clips.
Hi 5m , if Opec disappoints, which it has every chance to do, you’ll have the perfect anticipation trade and USDCAD will be a good long USD. It wasn’t the pair to buy past weeks, now it can turn into the one not to sell into yearend. We’ll know by the end of the week but I’m certainly leaning your way.
Hey K, yes that oil trade is intended as a long/medium term (if it collaborates) on the base most of all on shale output really going up and beven price for shale guys really going down, I think many might be more than happy to hedge with WTI at high 55s if the trend stalls.
On USDCAD I have no bias at the moment … CAD I think could be a sell in the next months on BoC backing off hawkish rhetoric but at the same time I think USD will suffer too, though much depends on the first words from Mr. Powell. If that’s a bit less dovish than Janet long USDCAD could indeed work well