January 2018 Eurozone economic sentiment and consumer confidence final 30 January 2018
- Prior 116.0
- Business climate 1.54 vs 1.69 exp. Prior 1.66
- Industrial sentiment 8.8 vs 9.0 exp. Prior 9.1
- Services sentiment 16.7 vs 18.6 exp. Prior 18.4
- Consumer confidence final 1.3 vs 1.3 exp. Prior 1.3
- Consumer inflation expectations 19.6 vs 13.6 prior. Highest since Feb 2013
- Selling price expectations 12.4 vs 13.4 prior. Revised to 13.0
Some of the late year sentiment has faded but perhaps the bigger news is that big jump in the inflation gauge. The ECB is all about inflation expectations and that number is looking good. In the same way that falling inflation sentiment can see consumers holding back spending on the hopes of cheaper prices (and thus it can have a self-fulfilling effect on falling inflation), rising price expectations can bring forward spending as folks buy to avoid future price rises.
Eurozone consumer inflation expectations
Psychedelic chartist extraordinaire. Have your shades ready.
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”
Read how Ryan got into trading here
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”
Read how Ryan got into trading here
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Hey Ryan, all good?
I have a question about JPY 🙂 I know, wrong topic, but nothing about JPY yet today.
Month end flow. Twitter says pension funds need to rebalace portfolio, sell stock and but securities. How this affect dollar index/JPY?
HI Art
All good here thanks, hope you’re well too.
Month-end is always a tricky time for a lot of currencies. Some models have been pointing to USD selling this month but we’ve not seen much of that. The issue we have at the moment is that there’s a lot going on in bonds , especially from Japanese sellers who have been selling US bonds. That could point to a lot of these yen moves being repatriation moves.
A lot of these end of month moves are now done during the days leading up to it, rather than the majority being done bang on the fixes but for yen, you need to watch the Tokyo fix (around 00.50 GMT ), and London Fix more so for USD, EUR & GBP.