March 2018 UK CPI inflation report 18 April 2018

  • Prior 2.7%
  • 0.1% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior 0.4%
  • Core 2.3% vs 2.5% exp y/y. Prior 2.4%
  • 0.2% vs 0.4% exp m/m. prior 0.6%
  • RPI 0.1% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior 0.8%
  • 3.3% vs 3.6% exp y/y. Prior 3.6%
  • RPI ex-mortgate payments 0.1% vs 0.8% prior m/m
  • 3.4% vs 3.6% prior y/y

Soft all round.

Notes

  • Largest downward contributor to CPI was clothing & footwear
  • Budget related tax effects hit alcohol & tobacco prices
  • Crude oil largest contributor to annual PPI Input prices
  • Easter has had no meaningful effect on prices in March
  • Growth in the price of goods leaving factories continued to slow
  • Output inflation y/y continues to slow, due to smaller rise in food product prices
  • All sectors added to the upward contribution for annual output prices
  • Annual house price growth in London, lowest of any region in UK (-1.0%)

At the worse end of what we were expecting. GBPUSD fell to 1.4223 initially but the bounce from there has been slapped to 1.4214 so far. The big figure might be the line in the sand here but this is going to have May hike expectations re-written.

Ryan Littlestone
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