March 2018 UK retail sales report 19 April 2018

  • Prior 0.8%
  • 1.1% vs 2.0% exp y/y. Prior 1.5%
  • Ex-fuel -0.5% vs -0.4% exp m/m. Prior 0.6%
  • 1.1% vs 1.4% exp y/y. Prior 1.1%

The weather won out.

ONS Notes

  • Headline m/m sales hit by 7.4% fall in petrol sales; likely weather related
  •  Easter and Mother’s Day online sales helped offset some of drop
  • Sales 3M/3M fell 0.5%, while Ex-Fuel sales fell 0.4%
  • Department stores only sector to see growth on the month (0.8%)
  • Online sales accounted for 17.4% of all retailling s/a vs 15.9% a yr-ago
  • Sales likely to trim 0.03pp from Q1 GDP

GBP has taken an obvious hit with GBPUSD down to 1.4161. Ordinarily, a skewed report like this wouldn’t be hit so hard but coming after a bad inflation report, it’s giving the sellers the opportunity to push further. Just make sure to make a note about a rebound next month. For the last two days the UK has had stunningly & unseasonally sunny and hot weather, which is set to last into the weekend. That will bring follks out spending.

Ryan Littlestone
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