May 2018 UK labour market report 12 June 2018

  • Prior 31.2k. Revised to 28.2k
  • April ILO unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.2% exp. Prior 4.2%
  • Average weekly earnings 2.5% vs 2.6% exp 3m y/y. Prior 2.6%
  • Ex-bonus 2.8% vs 2.9% exp. Prior 2.9%
  • Employment change 146k vs 110k exp. Prior 197k

ONS notes;

  • In real terms, total pay growth was -0.1, regular was 0.2% (using CPI measure)
  • Both Incl and Excl bonuses wages continued to increase slighly ahead of inflation (using CPIH measure)
  • Unemployment fell 38K versus 3M-to-Jan 2018 and now at 1.42M
  • Inactivity rate fell 0.2% Q/Q, to joint record low of 21.0%
  • Vacancies rose 2K Q/Q to 818K
  • Long-term unemployment rose 6K Feb-Apr 2018, first time since Sep-Nov 2017 (3K)

A mixed bag in that there was strong labour growth but a touch of softening on wages. Nothing earth shattering though, hence why GBP had a minor wobble but a quick recovery. The real terms pay growth is still the wrong side of inflation, which keeps a little bit of pressure on the BOE and their hike hopes.

 

Ryan Littlestone
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