A new monthly UK GDP print will be released today

Heads up for some new data from the UK. As part of the ONS revamp of its data production, today sees the first monthly GDP release. Supposedly this will help increase the amount of data captured in the quarterly reports. Under the old system, some 60-70% of the preliminary GDP reports are estimated. Then there’s the revision and the final, so three reports in total. With the release of the monthly numbers, there will now only be two quarterly GDP prints at 6 & 13 weeks after the end of the quarter.

Today we get three GDP numbers.

  • A rolling 3m GDP estimate print (the main number to watch), expected in at 0.2% (the same as the final Q1 2018 number)
  • A month on month estimate number (0.3% exp)
  • A year on year estimate number (1.4% exp)

Alongside those we also get a services print for May. Last at 0.3% m/m & 1.6% y/y. (This services number is the normal index of services numbers we get with the quarterly reports).

All the data comes together with the industrial, manufacturing and contruction production releases. Lots to type up.

As the ONS are just from scratch, I believe they will be presenting the back series to this data also so we may see the algos moving on those. As mentioned, keep an eye on the 3m/3m number as that’s the one that will give us a clue on the quarterly number. It all happens at 08.30 GMT.

Update: I should clarify that these monthly numbers are still estimate numbers.

Ryan Littlestone

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