UK CPI June 2018 2.4% vs 2.6% exp y/y

June 2018 UK CPI, RPI, PPI inflation data 18 July 2018

Prior 2.4%
0.0% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.4%
Core CPI 1.9% vs 2.2% exp y/y. Prior 2.1%
-0.1% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior 0.3%
RPI 0.3% vs 0.4% exp m/m. Prior 0.4%
3.4% vs 3.5% exp y/y. Prior 3.3%
RPI ex-mortgage int payments0.3 % vs 0.4% prior m/m
3.4% vs 3.4% prior y/y
PPI input 0.2% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior 2.8%. Revised to 3.3%
10.2% vs 10.0% exp y/y. Prior 9.2%. Revised to 3.6%
PPI Output prices 0.1% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior 0.4%. Revised to 0.5%
3.1% vs 3.2% exp y/y. Prior 2.9%. Revised to 3.0%
Core output 0.2% vs 0.2% exp/prior m/m
2.1% vs 2.1% exp/prior y/y

ONS notes

Last time Core CPI was lower was in March 2017 (1.8%)
Largest upward contribution was from motor fuels, domestic gas & electricity
Utility company price rises came from British Gas, EDF & Scottish Power
Petrol prices rose 2.7p on the month, highest since Sep 2014, while diesel rose 2.9p
Downward contribution came via clothing & footwear, computer games
Clothing discounting deepest (May-Jun) since 2012
No tariff related effect being seen on input prices
Output prices y/y highest rate since Dec 2017, input prices highest since May 2017
Input prices for crude oil rose 50.7% on the year-to-Jun, up from 43.1% in May
UK house price growth slowest in nearly 5-yrs

Soft numbers and the pound has dropped as BOE expectations get scrubbed further. Hike odds drop to ~~69%~~ 67.5% from 73% prior to the data. GBPUSD trades down to 1.3010. Barrier sits at 1.3000.

One thing that’s in favour of seeing inflation continuing is the higher PPI numbers including higher revisions. That suggests that there’s still underlying inflation coming through and PPI tends to lag.