UK Q2 2018 GDP prelim 0.4% vs 0.4% exp q/q

Q2 2018 UK GDP preliminary report 10 August 2018

• Q1 2018 0.2%
• 1.3% vs 1.3% exp y/y. Prior 1.2%
• Business investment 0.5% vs 0.3% exp q/q. Prior -0.4%
• 0.8% vs 2.0% prior y/y
• Exports -3.6% vs 0.7% exp q/q. Prior 0.0%
• Imports -0.8% vs 0.8% exp q/q. Prior -0.2%
• Consumption 0.3% vs 0.4% exp q/q. Prior 0.2%
• Gov spending 0.4% vs 0.3% exp q/q. Prior 0.4%
• Gross fioxed cap 0.8% vs 0.7% exp q/q. Prior -1.3%
• 0.1% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.3%
• 1.3% vs 1.3% exp y/y. Prior 1.5%
• Services 0.0% vs 0.3% prior m/m
• 13% vs 1.7% prior y/y

Industrial production June 2018

• IP 0.4% vs 0.4% exp m/m. Prior -0.4%. Revised to -0.2%
• 1.1% vs 0.7% exp y/y. Prior 0.8%. Revised to 1.2%
• Manufacturing output 0.4% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior 0.4%. Revised to 0.6%
• 1.5% vs 1.0% exp y/y. Prior 1.1%. Revised to 1.5%
• Construction 1.4% vs 0.0% exp m/m. PRior 2.9%
• 2.2% vs 1.1% exp y/y. Prior 2.9%

Trade bal June 2018

• Visible -11.383bn vs -11.950bn ecp. Prior -12.526bn
• Non-EU -2.94bn vs -3.60bn exp. Prior -3.49bn. Revised to -3.63bn

Where to start with all this lot? I’ll try and be brief.

• GDP on the money but the Export/import numbers show lower activity
• Spending a touch better (private), Gov, ok.
• Business investment much better
• IP and manufacturing better than expected
• Trade balance good

Overall, ok to reasonably good numbers but with so much to digest, larger forces at play, and the BOE back on their hands regarding policy, it means nothing to the quid.

ONS notes

• Strong growth in services driven by retail on warm weather
• GDP driven by services, but offset by production
• 3M growth recovered from flat growth seen in 3M-to-April
• Growth over H2 2018 remained modest by historical standards
• Manufacturing not fallen this low since Q4 2012 (-1.8%)
• Total trade deficit widened 4.7B to 8.6B 3M-to-June
• Non-EU trade in goods deficit widened 2.9B in 3M-to-J

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Ryan Littlestone

Psychedelic chartist extraordinaire. Have your shades ready.
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