July 2018 UK labour market data 14 Auguts 2018

  • Prior 7.8k
  • June ILO unemployment rate 4.0% vs 4.2% exp. Prior 4.2%
  • Average weekly earnings 2.4% vs 2.5% exp 3m y/y. Prior 2.5%
  • Ex-bonus 2.7% vs 2.7% exp 3m y/y. Prior 2.7%
  • Employment change 42k vs 98k exp. Prior 137k

Wages hold up ex-bonus but the claimant count is ticking up a touch.

ONS Notes

  • Total pay growth dampened by bonus pay
  • Real wages flat for total and up 0.3% for regular pay (CPI measure)
  • Vacancies up 20K on quarter to 829K record high
  • Unemployment down 65K on quarter to 1.36M
  • Inactivity rate edges up 0.2% on quarter to 21.2%
  • Labour productivity increased 0.4% in Q2 following a fall of 0.4% in Q1 2018
  • Hours worked fell across the board Apr-Jun 2018 (Full & Part-time)

An ok report. A drop in unemployment by some margin and wages holding up well enough. A solid report without being spectacular.  GBPUSD popped to 1.2827 but fell back quickly to 1.2795.

The drop to a record low unemployment rate was mainly due to UK nationals getting into work. That’s likely to be at the cost of immigrant workers leaving the UK due to Brexit.

Ryan Littlestone

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