August 2018 US non-farm payrolls and employment data 7 September 2018

  • Prior 157k. Revised to 147k
  • Private payrolls 204k vs 190k exp. Prior 170k. Revised to 153k
  • Manufacturing payrolls -3k vs 24k exp. Prior 37k. Revised to 18k
  • Government payrolls -3k vs -13k prior. Revised to -6k
  • Unemployment rate 3.9% vs 3.8% exp. Prior 3.9%
  • Average hourly earnings 0.4% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.3%
  • 2.9% vs 2.7% exp y/y. Prior 2.7%
  • Average workweek hours 34.5 vs 34.5 exp. Prior 34.5
  • Participation rate 62.7% vs 62.9% prior
  • U6 underemployment rate 7.4% vs 7.5% prior

Jobs hold up and wages jump. Solid for the dollar.

Overall, that’s given something for USD bulls to grab onto. It doesn’t change anything for the Fed’s path but that might not stop the market start to price in a slightly higher path for 2019. USDJPY to 111.06. It certainly seems to be cementing the 4 hikes for 2018 expectation.  Sep is a 95.2% chance.



Ryan Littlestone

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