August 2018 UK CPI PPI and RPI data 19 September 2018

  • Prior 2.5%
  • 0.7% vs 0.5% exp m/m. Prior 0.0%
  • Core CPI 2.1% vs 1.8% exp y/y. Prior 1.9%
  • 0.8% vs 0.5% exp m/m. Prior -0.1%
  • RPI 0.9% vs 0.6% exp m/m. Prior 0.1%
  • 3.5% vs 3.2% exp y/y. Prior 3.2%
  • RPI-ex financials 0.9% vs 0.1% prior m/m
  • 3.4% vs 3.3% prior y/y
  • PPI input 0.5% vs 0.4% exp m/m. Prior 0.5%
  • 8.7% vs 9.1% exp y/y. Prior 10.9%
  • PPI output 0.2% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.0%
  • 2.9% vs 2.9% exp y/y. Prior 3.1%
  • Core PPI output 0.1% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.0%
  • 2.1% vs 2.1% exp y/y. Prior 2.2%
  • HPI 3.1% vs 2.75 exp y/y. Prior 3.25

Notes
– Transport services & clothing responsible for uptick in inflation
– Rising prices of recreational & cultural goods/services were also upward contributors
– Furniture & household goods, telecoms were largest
– Annual PPI Input & Output rose, petroleum/crude oil largest upward contribution
– Strong gains seen on monthly PPI numbers for both Input and Output
– Output prices for petrol products up 14.4% y/y in Aug, down from 16.1% in Jul
– UK HPI lowest annual growth rate since Aug 2013 (3.0%)
– House prices in NW, SW and W Mids offsetting London’s continued slowing

Very strong CPI numbers but PPI is a touch softer. It will be ignored though for the CPI. that will ramp up BOE rate expectations but on the other side of the coin, it sucks out some steam from wage gains. GBPUSD to a 1.3209 high so far from 1.3160.

Ryan Littlestone

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