The latest weekly report from Morgan Stanley sees a short-tern change in  their view of JPY

USDJPY

  • Q3 2018 113 vs 104 prior
  • Q4 2018 108 vs 101 prior
  • Q1 2019 104 vs 98 prior
  • Q2 100 vs 96 prior
  • Q3 95 unch
  • Q4 93 unch

EURJPY

  • Q3 2018 128 vs 118 prior
  • Q4 124 vs 116 prior
  • Q1 2019 124 vs 117 prior
  • Q2 124 vs 119 prior
  • Q3 122 unch
  • Q4 123 unch

We have revised our JPY projections lower in reaction to rebounding risk appetite and rising global bond yields. However, our long-term bullish JPY projections built on Japan’s demographically related repatriation needs and its economy heading towards productivity gains remain in place. Hence, this revision has not gone beyond a mark-to-market exercise.

In trading, they opened a EURCHF long at last night’s NY close (around 1.1290) with a stop at 1.1180 and TP of 1.1650 (they love an outlandish TP).

Ryan Littlestone

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