Governments and policies adapting to critical known unknown

Global growth shaken, central banks stirred

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The drastic measures which governments across the world have taken so far to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus have few precedents outside of war times and therefore quantifying their...
Governments and policies adapting to critical known unknown

Virus, volatility and valuations

4X Global Research Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 27 February 2020 In reaction to the coronavirus epidemic governments across the world have enacted measures unprecedented in recent decades, including closing national borders, setting up...
Governments and policies adapting to critical known unknown

Depressed FX volatility allows for few surprises

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy – 4X Global Global FX volatility has fallen further in the past month to its lowest level since September 2014 according to our estimate (see Figure 1). Volatility in most major currencies has either fallen or only...
Governments and policies adapting to critical known unknown

US consumer – From King to Prince

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) 8 October 2019 It is perhaps obvious that Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) or consumer demand is critical to US economic growth. PCE growth has accounted for over 80% of US real GDP growth since end-2013 (see...

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