UK Q2 2018 GDP final 0.4% vs 0.4% exp q/q

Q2 2018 UK GDP final 28 September 2018

Prior 0.4%. Q1 revised to 0.1%
1.2% vs 1.3% exp y/y. Prior 1.3%. Revised to 1.1%
Business investment -0.7% vs 0.5% prior q/q. Rev to -0.5%
-0.2% vs 0.8% prior y/y. Rev to 2.3%
Spending 0.4% vs 0.3% prior q/q
Income 0.4% vs 0.6% prior
Gov spending -0.4% vs 0.4% prior
Employee compensation 0.7% vs 0.6% prior q/q
3.2% vs 3.8% prior y/y

Softer details despite the quarterly number holding up. What sticks out is that some of the revisions are a joke. Business investment going from +0.5% to -0.5%, and then coming in even lower? It’s purely down to bad estimations in the first readings and they need to get that figured out.

Notes
– ONS: “Underlying economic growth remains persistently below L/T avg”
– H1 2018 growth grew at slowest pace since H2 2011
– Services and construction strengthen in Q2; Q1 construction revised down 1.6% (prev -0.8%)
– GFCF Q2 fell 0.5% q/q; down 0.6% Q2 y/y; Reah household disposable income grew 0.4%
– Growth in household consumption slows in Q2; Gov’t consumption sees revised fall of 0.4%
– Q1 18 GDP revised lower (-0.1%) on added VAT data from construction sector
– Business investment growth falls for 2-consecutive quarters (last time Q4 16-Q1 17)
– C/A deficit change in Q2 due to widening of trade in goods/primary income deficits
– Nominal Q2 GDP was up 0.8% due to positive revision of compensation of employees