Forex update 4 October 2018

by | October 4th, 2018, 12:06:35 | News

A quick forex market update

  • EURUSD – Hovering around the 1.1500 level and just above as I type. If it gets above 1.1510 then traders will be confident in a bottom in place around 60 and will look to cement the 1.1500 level as support also. Failure to do so will mean another push lower to test the lows.
  • USDJPY – Off the 114.50 highs and for all the positive USD talk and rising yields, we’re still holding the near two year highs around here. It’s going to take a clearance of 115.00 to really get this pair moving. If US bond yields are having another fake out, this pair will be in trouble. So, that’s the key area, 114.50-115.00. Support is around 114.20/25 (scrap that after the BOJ news) and 114.00.
  • GBPUSD – Smartly up from the lows at 1.2920 and feeling out the 1.30 level again. 1.3020 marked the highs yesterday so expect it to offer resistance again. The quick return here does suggest buyers want to push it again. Support at 1.2975/80 comes ahead of 1.2960. 1.2920 support looks to be protection of the bigger 1.2895/1.2905 area.
  • AUDUSD – Still looking very sorry for itself under 0.7100. A very tight range so far and seemingly no interest in moving in either direction. Sellers are probably waiting for dip buyers to give them better levels to hit, while buyers don’t seem that keen to do anything. The 66 low is about the only marker to use for support as there’s plenty of empty space until at least the 0.70 big fig
  • USDCAD – Making good use of the broken 1.2880 level, which was such good support on the way down. Technically it’s playing the level perfectly. Minor support at 60 would see a push down to 40 if broken

US yields have been a big driver but although they still sit near the highs, we’re seeing a period of calm. That might change if yields start climbing again. The US data has jopless claims at 12.30 GMT, and factory orders to come (including the durables revisions) at 14.00 GMT. CAD traders might keep an eye on the Ivey PMI (14.00 GMT) with an expected hike from the BOC this month.

 

Ryan Littlestone
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