August 2018 UK industrial, manufacturing & construction production, GDP and trade balance data 10 October 2018

  • Industrial production 0.2% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.1%. Revised to 0.4%
  • 1.3% vs 1.0% exp y/y. Prior 0.9%. Revised to 1.0%
  • Manufacturing -0.2% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior -0.2%. Revised to 0.0%
  • 1.3% vs 1.1% exp y/y. Prior 1.1%. Revised to 1.4%
  • Construction -0.7% vs -0.5% exp m/m. Prior 0.5%
  • 0.3% vs 1.4% exp y/y. Prior 3.5%. Revised to 2.85

GBP & trade balance data Aug 2018

  • GDP 0.7% vs 0.6% exp 3m/3m. Prior 0.6%. Revised to 0.7%
  • 0.0% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.3%. Revised to 0.4%
  • 1.5% vs 1.6% exp y/y. Prior 1.6%. Revised to 1.7%
  • Services 0.0% vs 0.3% prior m/m
  • % vs 1.6% vs 1.5% prior y/y. Revised to 1.8%
  • Visible trade bal -11.20bn vs -10.90bn exp. Prior -9.97bn. Revised to -10.39bn
  • Non-EU bal -4.22bn vs -3.10bn exp. Prior -2.80bn. Revised to -3.14bn
  • Trade bal -1.274bn vs -1.20bn exp. Prior -0.11bn prior. Revised to -0.57bn
  • Exports 0.3% vs 1.2% prior
  • Imports 2.5% vs -1.3% prior

Notes
– Rolling 3M/3M growth helped in part by warm weather
– Services sector largest contributor (0.42%); production & construction also positive
– Long-term perspective shows subdued growth in services says ONS
– Production recovered but manufacturing slips in August
– Total production output 3M/3M grew by 0.7%; strongest rise since Nov 2017
– Construction continues its rebound from poor first quarter
– Trade deficit narrowed on drop in non-monetary gold imports; oil exports rose
– Total trade deficit narrowed 4.7B to 2.8B in 3M-to-Aug 2018

A lot to take in. Overall, trade a touch softer, GDP a touch softer m/m & y/y but up on the rolling. IP up, MP down. It’s all really a mixed bag. GBP is softer after and I suspect that’s on the trade bal data more than anything else.

Ryan Littlestone

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Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”

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Ryan Littlestone

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