UK data shows promise on GDP, ‘meh’ on industrial production and better on trade

by | November 9th, 2018, 09:35:53 | Economic Data, News, UK

UK economics

September 2018 UK GDP, industrial production and trade balance data 9 November 2018

GDP Q3 2018 (prelim)

  • 0.6% vs 0.6% exp q/q. Prior 0.4%
  • 1.5% vs 1.5% exp y/y. Prior 1.2%
  • Business investment -1.2% vs 0.2% exp q/q. Prior -0.7%
  • -1.9% vs -0.2% prior y/y
  • Consumption 0.5% vs 0.5% exp q/q. Prior 0.3%
  • Gov spending 0.6% vs 0.4% exp q/q. Prior 0.4%
  • Gross fixed cap 0.8% vs 0.3% exp q/q. Prior 0.8%
  • Exports 2.7% vs 3.0% exp q/q. Prior -3.6%
  • Imports 0.0% vs 0.8% exp q/q. Prior -0.8%

GDP (Monthly estimates)

  • 0.0% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.0%
  • 1.5% vs 1.5% exp y/y. Prior 1.5%. Revised to 1.4%

Industrial production (Sep)

  • 0.0% vs -0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.2%. Revised to 0.0%
  • 0.0% vs 0.4% exp y/y. Prior 1.3%. Revised to 1.0%
  • Manufacturing 0.2% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior -0.2%. Revised to -0.1%
  • 0.5% vs 0.4% exp y/y. Prior 1.3%

Construction output (Sep)

  • 3.0% vs 0.0% exp m/m. prior -0.7%. Revised to 0.5%
  • 1.7% vs 1.1% exp y/y. Prior 0.3%. Revised to -0.3%

Trade balance

  • Visible trade bal -9.73bn vs -11.25bn exp. Prior -11.20bn. Revised to -11.72bn
  • Non-EU bal -2.34bn vs -3.90bn exp. Prior -4.22bn. Revised to -4.56bn
  • Trade bal -2.34bn vs -1.50bn exp. Prior -1.27bn

Picking thought it all;

  • GDP ok on the headline numbers and stops the rot of falling growth
  • Biz investment sucks. 3 guesses what’s behind that 😉
  • Spending looking ok and that’s an important number to pick up the slack from investment
  • IP & MP looks flat-ish
  • Better trade balance numbers mostly

On the whole, it’s not fantastic but it’s not bad either. GBPUSD rises to 1.3016 from a dip to 1.2995.

 

Ryan Littlestone
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