The upcoming risks for the next couple of hours

The DUP are flying in to read the deal, so there’s headline risk there if they come out with the same ranting once they’ve seen the deal. They could of course do a 180 and actually be happy about it. If they are that means two things.

  1. The Cabinet approval will be a formality
  2. It’s going to put serious pressure on the rebel leavers, as they won’t be able to argue the backstop is a bad thing when the leading party in NI say it’s sufficient. The rebel leavers will effectively lose one angle of attack and will be severely crippled

The pressure from the DUP agreeing to the deal will actually cause a lot of people to shut up and backtrack and could change the whole tone of Brexit going forward, and bring Parliament closer to a yes vote. At this stage the Cabinet approval looks likely with or without DUP support but they will be the clincher or the kicker.

Or, the DUP disagree with the deal and everything gets thrown into turmoil again. On that balance of risks, I’m cutting some of my small cable longs just so I can bank something if it all goes wonky. I’ll move my stop right up too.

Back to watching the headlines.

Ryan Littlestone

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