October 2018 UK CPI and PPI data 14 November 2018
- Prior 2.4%
- 0.1% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.1%
- Core 1.9% vs 2.0% exp y/y. Prior 1.9%
- 0.0% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.0%
- CPIH 2.2% vs 2.3% exp y/y. Prior 2.2%
- RPI 0.1% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.0%
- 3.3% vs 3.4% exp y/y. Prior 3.3%
- RPI ex-financials 0.1% vs 0.0% prior m/m
- 3.2% vs 3.3% prior y/y
- Sep HPI 3.5% vs 3.2% exp y/y. Prior 3.2%. Revised to 3.1%
- Input 0.8% vs 0.6% exp m/m. Prior 1.3%. Revised to 1.4%
- 10.0% vs 9.6% exp y/y. Prior 10.3%. Revised to 10.5%
- Output 0.3% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.4%
- 3.3% vs 3.1% exp/prior y/y
- Core output 0.3% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.1%
- 2.4% vs 2.4% exp.prior y/y
Overall, a miss on expectations in the headlineCPI numbers but unchanged on last month. It keeps CPI high and the BOE watching closely. PPI input is up too, which will keep thoughts about a passthrough in place.
GBPUSD drops a touch but there’s going to be greater focus on the Brexit mess.
- All product groups provided upward contributions to output and input annual inflation, for the second consecutive month.
- Petroleum and crude oil provided the largest contribution to both the annual and monthly rates of inflation for output and input inflation respectively.
- Food and clothing were the biggest downward contributors to CPI, offset by rising utility bills
What we’ve got here is a margin issue between PPI input prices outstripping output prices. A lot of that is due to oil so if these latest oil price falls are sustained, we should see that dissipate over the coming months. While output prices may not be rising as quickly generally, there are energy related costs within them that are.