Trying to make sense of Brexit No.98646969234
Don’t ask me as I’m losing the will to live over it all. But seriously, here’s where we’re at.
- 48 letters – Still no confirmation that the magic number has been reached to force a no-confidence vote. Doesn’t sound like they’re queuing out the door to hand them in does it? Lots of Conservative members are now working out which side of the boat they need to be on.
- Who will be put forward in a leadership challenge? Just because Mogg’s mob is making all the noise doesn’t mean one of his crew will be the only challenger. There’s plenty of remainers who might fancy their chances.
- The DUP – It’s all gone quiet from the Northern Ireland lot, especially leader Foster. That’s ominous because she’s not slow in giving her view. The fact she hasn’t come out with a view at all, let alone matching ones from her colleagues could offer chink of light to May, as the delay might mean she’s not knocking back the deal entirely. The last known contact was via her twitter 2 hours ago saying she was meeting the Home Secretary “on a range of Brexit issues”. If Foster and her party back May’s deal, that will leave a lot of egg on a lot of the hardliners faces, and could pull Conservative undecideds to May’s side.
The pound will continue to keep moving on the headlines but it’s also looking in a state of flux because there’s just so many different permutations to this. No one knows what the outcome will mean. Don’t get complacent with a lack of movement now. The headlines will need to be scrutinised closely now but it’s not easy. That’s going to make it tough to trade. My overriding advice would be to not trade it at all.
I’m sitting here in the middle of it all and even I’m not sure how one headline might be interpreted from another. Is May staying good for stability or bad in light of the deal? Would a new PM change the deal or stick with it? Lots of unknowns. Trade away if you must but recognise the dangers and act accordingly. If you feel the itch to trade, lower your trade size and thus your risk and, as Kman said earlier, it’s better to be prepared for the worst.
- Catch the all new Flow Show starting Monday 16th May - May 13, 2022
- Has the EUR worm turned? - April 21, 2022
- Exclusive – Large natural gas field discovered in France could ease Europe’s dependency on Russian supplies - April 1, 2022