EU agreement flies through the summit and now it’s all up to May

The EU agreed the draft Brexit details pretty much without a blink but there’s plenty of concern from the EU side over what happens when it’s the UK’s turn.

Reuters had some of the choice comments after;

  • Dutch PM Rutte said, “I can only tell you in all honesty what the situation is and the situation is that there is no plan B. This is the deal on the table. If anyone thinks in the United Kingdom that by voting ‘no’ something better would come out of it, they are wrong. This is the best we can get for both the European Union and the United Kingdom.”
  • France’s Macron said “It’s not a day when we should celebrate, nor a day of mourning. It is the choice of a sovereign people.”
  • Germany’s Merkel – “You can certainly say it was a historic summit and a historic day, which produces mixed emotions. It is tragic that Great Britain leaves the EU after 45 years but we have to respect the vote of the British people and, based on this, it is good that we agreed on a withdrawal agreement and a political declaration about future ties with Great Britain.”
  • Michel Barnier gave a veiled warning to UK politicians – “We have negotiated with the UK, never against the UK. Now it is time for everybody to take their responsibility, everybody.”

Reuters has the full comments here.

Theresa May came out with the usual waffle of the deal being the best for the UK, and that it’s the best deal to take back to Parliament but we’ve already had the leader of the opposition Labour party saying he’ll vote against it. And thus, that remains the next big event to come. The Independent ran a story today saying that Dec 10/11th is the possible vote date as it comes before a 13th Dec EU meeting. We’ll have to wait for confirmation of that. We might have a fair idea of how that vote is going to go down over the next week or so because we’re going to be filled with comments about it. An important factor is still the DUP. Apparently, they’re against the deal too (reports the FT) and leader Foster has also warned that if the deal does get through Parliament, that may affect the coalition deal that is keeping May in power. We still might get some further technical negotiations on the backstop and fishing etc. The fun won’t stop just yet.

For GBP, I don’t see much movement happening on all this news but the ball is now firmly in the UK’s court and that’s going to be the driver going forward. Current early prices see GBPUSD opening around 1.2830.

Ryan Littlestone

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