Forex levels to watch over the US NFP

Here are some levels to look at over the US jobs report

For today’s NFP I favour buying USD on a bad number in EURUSD and GBPUSD. I’d sell a good number dollar only at a few key levels.

GBPUSD

• 1.2952/62 55 &100 DMA’s
• 1.2920/30 – Prior S&R
• 1.2900 – Big fig
• 1.2885 – Prior res

Down

• 1.2690/1.2700 – Prior supp
• 1.2660 – Year low big double bottom
• 1.2600 – big fig
• 1.2586 – S&R 2016/17

I think this pair could be the best one to fade a bad number with Brexit still the big driver. We’ve seen rallies hit very strongly in this pair so a pop on a bad number is going to look very enticing. The red levels would be my ideal places but depending on the PA, I will look at the other two.

EURUSD

• 1.1550 – Prior modest S&R
• 1.1525/30 – S&R. 55 MMA 1.1525
• 1.1517 – 100 DMA
• 1.1490/1.1500 – Prior res, some prior supp
• 1.1480 – 20 Nov high
• 1.1450/60 – Stronger looking S&R than 80. The 55 DMA leads into this at 1.1445
• 1.1420/30 – recent series of highs

Down

• 1.1310/20 – Recent intraday lows. 200 WMA 1.1313
• 1.1300 – Big fig, add to the 10/20 picture
• 1.1265/70 – 28 Nov low
• 1.1200/10 – Strong support
• 1.1186 – 61.8 fib of 2017 rally. A lot of eyes on this level

Three levels I’d have greater interest in trading here. The 1.12 and 1.15’s are probably too far away so it’s really 1.1450/60 in the frame.

USDJPY

• 114.50/55 – Longer-term big res level
• 114.20 – Recent res
• 114.00 – Big fig and prior res
• 113.80 – This week’s high
• 113.60/70 – S&R
• 113.20/30 – S&R. 55 H4 MA 113.27

Down

• 112.20/25 – Late Nov and this week’s lows. 100 DMA 112.21
• 112.00 – Big fig
• 111.75/80 – Prior S&R. Pretty much the whole area 111.50-111.80 is an S&R area
• 111.40 – S&R
• 111.18 100 WMA
• 111.00/10 – Big fig and prior supp.

This is usually my USD pair of choice but it can offer no volatility sometimes. I’ve been a seller into 114.00 and see no reason to change that view right now. I might be tempted with a long into 112.00 and I’d be more interested in a long build below to run into the FOMC, which I think the market is under-pricing.

Don’t forget to enter our NFP competition.

Good luck today and stay safe.