Implied probabilities for next year’s hikes are wide open
When will the next two hikes come, is the next question for the market to resolve. Right now, it’s an open book as the next hike is pretty much a 35-40% (see 2.5-2.75% band) chance over the whole year with no month standing out, though the second half of the year looks to be what the market favours overall (see hike prob column).
It’s going to take the market sometime to properly price things and that’s unlikely to happen this side of the new year now but one thing that might make the decision harder is that next year, every FOMC will be live and have a presser. There will be no more pigeon-holing policy moves into the quarterly presser meetings. Won’t that be exciting?