Here’s the technical levels to look out for through the December 2018 FOMC meeting
Time to get down and dirty for the Fed.
USDJPY
Up
- 114.53 – Oct high and major 2017/2018 top
- 114.20 – Nov high
- 113.90/114.00 – Prior strong resistance. Trend line from Oct high
- 113.70/80 – Further S&R back through Nov
- 113.50 – Strong S&R for the last week
- 113.15/22 100 & 200 H4MA’s
- 113.00 – Normal big fig resistance. 55 H4MA, 55 DMA
- 112.60/70 – Too close for any initial reaction but watch if we move well through it (or further away from it) and then return
Down
- 112.00 – Sizeable level but too close to the action now.
- 111.75 – S&R area
- 111.25/35 – Some S&R, Oct low but not a very clearly defined area
- 111.00 – Natural big figure support. 100 WMA 111.13
- 110.75/80 – A big looking level. 38.2 fib of the Mar 2018 swing 110.74. Prior S&R area, 200 DMA 110.80
- 110.58 55 WMA
USDJPY daily chart
EURUSD
Up
- 1.1600 – Big figure and former resistance
- 1.1586 – 61.8 fib of Sep swing. 100 WMA
- 1.1550 – S&R
- 1.1525/30 – S&R area. 55 MMA
- 1.1514 – 50 fib of Sep drop
- 1.1490/1.1500 – Big resistance area. Huge option expiry tomorrow too. 1.1490 100 DMA.
- 1.1460 – S&R but again too close
- 1.1430-50 – Prior resistance area. We’re into it now but one to watch on a move away and return
Down
- 1.1403 – 55 WMA
- 1.1300/10 – Recent support area
- 1.1265/70 – Nov/Dec double bottom
- 1.1210/15 – Nov & year low protecting 1.1200
- 1.1200 – Big support level
- 1.1186 – 61.8 fib of the 2017 rally
- 1.1115-30 2017 S&R
EURUSD daily chart
A reminder that although I post many levels, it doesn’t mean I’m looking to trade everyone of them. The exercise is looking for places where moves might become stretched or where I can define my risk if I think moves are out of sync with results or information of the event in question. I might also use these levels for signs of breaks. What should also be noted is that some of the closer levels might get blasted without a thought initially but they can come back into play if the price returns there after.
Subscribers to the ForexFlow platform will have information of some other important levels and components in play for tonight.
Psychedelic chartist extraordinaire. Have your shades ready.
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”
Read how Ryan got into trading here
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”
Read how Ryan got into trading here
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oh boy, i have a feeling this is gonna be messy with a lot of whipsaw today. will sit on hands until after the presser.
Closed this afternoon my UJ & Swissie short I had from Sunday evening, netting almost 200 pips at 1% margin.
Think EU will go for ~1520 for tomorrow’s expiry, to be faded afterwards, have a (very) small long, same for UJ (target 1290).
Well played AGP.
Not sure how this gonna play out Ryan, I’m -33p on the EU long and +35p on the UJ (both 1/1 at 1%)
I’m long USDJPY at an average of 112.81 so if we get above there I’m locking it in after sitting in the red all week.
I can see EURUSD falling back into the intraday range so i’m looking to sell a fail of 1.1400. In fact, we haven’t come close to breaking any longer-term ranges so you might have to leg your exits by Tp’ing one while the other is in the red and then waiting for it to come back (if things stay range bound).
BOJ tonight as well so some small risk there.
Yep, closed UJ at +49, for the moment -42 on EU.
One thing you have to consider when talking about expectations for prices is that if we don’t see big range breaks over something as big as the biggest Fed meeting this year, it’s hard to then see them happening the day after 😉
Also, you were long UJ and long EU then you were effectively long EURJPY so you could have managed it that way.
Entire set-up aimed at a quick gain, nothing more
I expected the longer term FOMC view to be slightly more dovish.
EJ went for -88 (initially) (now -32).
EU long now -32 (overall i’m safe anyway with a trailing sl).