Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 10 January 2019

  • This report examines the monthly seasonal patterns of 32 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2011, using 76,600 daily data points.
Average monthly NEER

Average monthly NEER

  • The NEER provides a more accurate overall picture (than the exchange rate versus the Dollar or other individual currencies) of a country’s currency and trade competitiveness and risks of imported inflation/deflation and is therefore an important policy input for central banks, particularly in open economies.
  • A number of factors can drive currency seasonality, including underlying seasonal patterns in balance of payment flows, the timing of public holidays and market liquidity. However, major domestic or international events (e.g. Brexit) or significant changes in central bank or government policy can break down even well established seasonal currency patterns.
  • Between December 2010 and December 2018 the Dollar NEER recorded the fastest pace of appreciation (27%). Five of the next six strongest currencies are low-yielding Non-Japan Asia currencies. The Swiss Franc posted the fourth largest gain (14%). Commodity currencies – Norwegian Krone and Canadian and Australian Dollars – all depreciated 20%.
  • Over the past eight years, the Brazilian Real NEER has been the strongest currency in January, appreciating on average by 1.4% mom, with the Colombian Peso in second place (+1.3% mom). Conversely, the Argentine Peso has been the weakest currency in January, depreciating on average by close to 5% mom.
  • The Dollar NEER has been weakest in the month of April and more broadly in February-April when on average it has weakened 0.4% mom. This would tend to support our bearish Dollar view (see Crunch time for currencies ahead of pivotal Q4, 24 September 2018).
  • Monthly seasonality in the Euro NEER, Romanian Leu and low-yielding Non-Japan Asian currencies has tended to be modest in the past eight years.
  • High-yielding emerging market currencies, as well as the Malaysian Ringgit and Philippines Peso, have historically weakened the most in August-September

For the full research note, a free 30-day trail is available.

4X Global Research is a London-based consultancy providing institutional and corporate clients with focused, actionable, independent and connected research on Emerging and G20 fixed income and FX markets and economies.

4X Global Research has a strong forecasting track record, rooted in both a qualitative and quantitative analysis of data, trends, policy decisions and global events. Its conflict-free and unbundled research services aim to give investors a unique edge in their investment decisions. Its exclusive subscription-based reports and consultancy services form the basis of a long-term strategic partnership with its clients.

 

Ryan Littlestone

Ryan Littlestone

Psychedelic chartist extraordinaire. Have your shades ready.
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”

Read how Ryan got into trading here
Ryan Littlestone

Pin It on Pinterest