It will be huge surprise if May’s government loses the no-confidence vote
- Firstly, this is not a vote against May but her ruling government
- But, by proxy of her leading she’s in the hot seat
- She survived a party no-conf vote and all those rebels who voted against her there have said they’ll back her
- The power sharing DUP have also come out in support
- This vote is a pure power battle between parties, so it’s really the Conservatives and DUP vs Labour and the rest. Because of that, May is unlikely to lose support from within
- Remember that her own party cannot force her out, she can only resign and she’s already ruled that out, so there’s no chink of light for a change of leadership
- Unless there’s an absolute shock, this is very likely to be a cake walk
As we’ve learnt from the debacle (I’m holding back from using stronger language), you can never say never but the make up of the power spectrum should see May in the clear. What’s going to be more newsworthy is what happens in cross-party talks designed to get the Brexit deal done.
Should the unexpected happen and the Government loses, they will then have 14 days to form a new government, and that’s when it’s likely that May resigns and we get a new leader. If the Conservatives manage that by regaining the support of the DUP, and thus their majority, they stay in power. If they fail, then we head to a general election.