January 2019 US non-farm payrolls and labour market date 1 February 2019

  • Non-farm payrolls 304k vs 165k exp. Prior 312k. Revised to 222k
  • Private payrolls 296k vs 170k exp. Prior 301k. Revised to 206k
  • Manufacturing payrolls 13k vs 17k exp. Prior 32k. Revised to 20k
  • Government payrolls 8k vs 11k prior. Revised to 16k
  • Unemployment rate 4.0% vs 3.9% exp. Prior 3.9%
  • Average hourly earnings 0.1% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior 0.4%
  • 3.2% vs 3.2% exp y/y. Prior 3.2%. Revised to 3.3%
  • Average work week hours 34.5 vs 34.5 exp/prior
  • Participation rate 63.2% vs 63.1% prior
  • U6 underemployment 8.1% vs 7.6% prior


  • 300k est gov workers affected by shutdown
  • Gov shutdown led to rise in unemployment rate
  • 2018 revision sees March 2018 cut by 16k
  • No real discernible impacts seen from shutdown

Overall, a still solid jobs market, as tipped by Kudlow last week. USD gains mildly across the board. USDJPY 109.08 from 108.90 odd. Not much in the way of moves.

The big revisions could be related to the year end benchmark changes.

Ryan Littlestone

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