UK preliminary GDP for Q4 2018 and December 2018 Industrial production and trade balance data 11 February 2019

  • Q4 2018 GDP prelim 0.2% vs 0.2% exp q/q. Prior 0.6%
  • 1.3% vs 1.4% exp y//y. Prior 1.5%. Revised to 1.6%
  • Business investment -1.4% vs -1.1% prior q/q
  • -3.7% vs -1.8% prior y/y
  • Dec GDP estimate -0.4% vs 0.05 exp m/m. Prior 0.2%
  • 1.0% vs 1.4% exp y/y. Prior 1.4%
  • 0.2% vs 0.3% exp 3m/3m. Prior 0.3%
  • Services -0.2% vs 0.3% prior m/m
  • 1.7% vs 1.9% prior y/y. Revised to 2.0%

Industrial production Dec 2018

  • -0.5% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior -0.4%. Revised to -0.3%
  • -0.9% vs -0.4% exp y/y. Prior -1.5%. Revised to -1.2%
  • Manufacturing -0.7% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior -0.3%. Revised to -0.1%
  • -2.1% vs -1.1% exp y/y. Prior -1.1%. Revised to -1.2%
  • Construction -2.8% vs 0.0% exp m/m. Prior 0.6%. Revised to 0.1%

Trade balance Dec 2018

  • Visible trade -12.10bn vs -12.00bn exp. Prior -12.02bn. Revised to -12.40bn
  • Non-EU trade -3.64bn vs -3.92bn prior. Revised to 4.18bn
  • Trade bal -3.23bn vs -3.00bn exp. Prior -2.90bn. Revised to -3.61bn

Not a good set of numbers across the board. Business investment stands out the most as that’s showing a big drop. GBPUSD duly down and under 1.2900 to 1.2895. We know what will get the blame but it still doesn’t change the fact the numbers are bad.

Ryan Littlestone

Psychedelic chartist extraordinaire. Have your shades ready.
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”

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Ryan Littlestone

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