UK economy suffers another Brexit induced decline as GDP and production drop

UK preliminary GDP for Q4 2018 and December 2018 Industrial production and trade balance data 11 February 2019

• Q4 2018 GDP prelim 0.2% vs 0.2% exp q/q. Prior 0.6%
• 1.3% vs 1.4% exp y//y. Prior 1.5%. Revised to 1.6%
• Business investment -1.4% vs -1.1% prior q/q
• -3.7% vs -1.8% prior y/y
• Dec GDP estimate -0.4% vs 0.05 exp m/m. Prior 0.2%
• 1.0% vs 1.4% exp y/y. Prior 1.4%
• 0.2% vs 0.3% exp 3m/3m. Prior 0.3%
• Services -0.2% vs 0.3% prior m/m
• 1.7% vs 1.9% prior y/y. Revised to 2.0%

Industrial production Dec 2018

• -0.5% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior -0.4%. Revised to -0.3%
• -0.9% vs -0.4% exp y/y. Prior -1.5%. Revised to -1.2%
• Manufacturing -0.7% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior -0.3%. Revised to -0.1%
• -2.1% vs -1.1% exp y/y. Prior -1.1%. Revised to -1.2%
• Construction -2.8% vs 0.0% exp m/m. Prior 0.6%. Revised to 0.1%

Trade balance Dec 2018

• Visible trade -12.10bn vs -12.00bn exp. Prior -12.02bn. Revised to -12.40bn
• Non-EU trade -3.64bn vs -3.92bn prior. Revised to 4.18bn
• Trade bal -3.23bn vs -3.00bn exp. Prior -2.90bn. Revised to -3.61bn

Not a good set of numbers across the board. Business investment stands out the most as that’s showing a big drop. GBPUSD duly down and under 1.2900 to 1.2895. We know what will get the blame but it still doesn’t change the fact the numbers are bad.

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Ryan Littlestone

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Latest posts by Ryan Littlestone (see all)

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