What’s happening in the UK MP voting game?
As I wrote yesterday, trying to work out the MP vote numbers from historical voting is flawed as convention is out the window. Already, people that voted no on May’s deal have switched (10 so far according to Buzzfeed), and remainers that would have been tipped to vote no have said they’ll vote yes;
I think it’s folly to attach any sort conviction to the numbers that will be sprayed around all day today but no doubt the market will move on them anyway.
My personal view is that it’s too tough to call whether it passes or not, unless something changes, like the DUP getting on board. If that happens, it’s game on. There’s a big emotional burden on MP’s for this one, rather than the political burden that was on the May votes. This is potentially the last chance to get a deal done and move on, or face the consequences of 3 more months (or longer) of even greater division in Parliament and in the country as a whole, and that’s even if there is an extension. My heart says the deal will pass under those circumstances but my head says that MP’s have proven they can screw things up any which way.
I’m going to have a serious think about my GBP longs into the weekend and how I’m going to protect the profits I have. There’s a huge gap risk this weekend but given the levels I’m scaled in at, I should have enough room to raise my stop but keep it out of any big volatility.
As usual, we’ll be running live analysis and trades throughout the day, on Brexit and everything else going on in the market, in our Live trading room, so if you have a question about Brexit and what it means for your trading, you’re welcome to join us.