One of our jobs in the ForexFlow platform is to dissect big data points in readiness to trade them, so here’s a snippet from the room for today’s US jobs report
We follow the K.I.S.S (Keep It Simple Stupid) strategy often at ForexFlow, and as well as providing plenty of outside analysis (bank notes etc) around big events, for our traders to read through, we like to boil it all down to simple views. Here’s our thoughts for the NFP’s today.
To start, the guesstimates are once again wide enough to drive an oil tanker through. 405k on the low, 9.000m on the high. The median is 3.000m-3.058m (Rtrs/BBG) so that’s obviously our marker.
Given how anything remotely positive means a bid in risk these days, anything close, or even just smalls better, is likely to keep this rally going. I’m not even sure whether a miss would be bad either because of the complete mess the BLS is in in calculating these numbers. That means we’re open to a huge skew this month but which way it goes is anyone’s guess. They say that some 4.9m was missclassified last month. All we can do is read through the details and make our own decisions. What we do know is that we’ve seen a bounce in jobs in other places due to relaxations and reopenings so there’s a good chance that continues for June here.
Trading wise, we’re still walking old paths and ranges and those edges are what I’ll be watching over this.
The world and his mate are still looking at EURUSD longs so a dip there looks favourable for a buy. On the downside, I’ll be looking again at the 1.1160/80 zone. Up above, 1.14 and 1.15 are my topside levels.
GBPUSD I’m likely going to leave alone as it might be a bit too volatile. We could easliy be back at 1.23 as we could be at 1.27 over this. I’ll only take a look if we do see an extreme move outside of what’s going on elsewhere.
AUDUSD – I have the 0.70’s in my sights as part of the topside in this current consolidation phase. 0.680010-0.6775/80 is the downside levels I’m watching.
USDJPY – Doing nothing right now so watching 107-108 mainly. Outside of that, 108-40 up and 106.60/65 down. Anything low 106’s or into 109 will get me very interested.
As FX looks like it’s back to following stocks again, perhaps that’s the first place top look for clues. Remember, this data is a lottery in normal times and the box of numbers has grown massively. With all the mechanics involved, it could be tough for even the seasoned among us to pick the truth from the details. As usual, I’ll mostly be looking to trade when I feel I’ve grasped the ins and outs of the data, so less inclined to jump in right on the announcement. This data has the scope to move markets bigly so if you don’t feel comfortable with the increased volatility this might bring, just go to the wider charts and look for the big range edges and see if we get a move to those. Doing that will help cut out a lot of the short-term noise and give you ample time to plot and plan for a trade.
I’ll also add that we need to note the continued claims in the jobless claims numbers out at the same time, as that will give us a more up to date view of the jobs market. I would warn that in fact, this might overide the NFP if there’s a big shift in those.
As usual, stay safe, and good luck.
We know this data can be volatile and today is no exception, so our aim as traders is to navigate it as safely as possible while coimg out with some profits. You can read all the analysis under the sun but it matters for nothing when those numbers drop and you have to make a split second decision. So, in most cases I let the dust settle and see what opportunities arise after. Planning is what every trader should do, even if that plan brings you to a conclusion that you should do nothing at all. Have your levels ready. Have an idea of the wider picture and trends to see if they are being tested or changing. All these aspects can help stop you making a mistake as much as they can help make you money.
Where we benefit at ForexFlow is having a community to bounce ideas off, to check and double check things we’re not clear on, to pick levels and clarify the charts, all just so we have the best chance of hitting a great trade. The above is but a small morsel of what we do at ForexFlow and if you’d like to know more, see what we offer here, or get in touch here, and we can see if the platform is suitable for you. We’re not interested in the ‘hard sell’, just seeing whether we can help improve your trading.
Also, don’t forget to enter our NFP competition where 2 winners will each receive a free 1 month pass to the platform. Just follow this link to the post and enter your guess.
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”
Read how Ryan got into trading here
- The last NFP competition of 2022 - December 1, 2022
- Will this month’s US NFP be a horror show? - October 4, 2022
- US NFP competition – Do you think there’s going to be a turn in the US jobs market? - August 31, 2022