Some food for thought on the next possible direction for Trump’s trade shake up
ING talk about trade in one of their latest notes;
Will the White House take their trade war into the currency arena?One of the bigger risks specific to FX markets in the near-term is whether the US administration chooses to take its trade clampdown into the currency arena. We’re expecting the US Treasury’s FX report anytime now – and we note in our preview how officials could technically label Thailand a ‘currency manipulator’.Doing so, in our view, would put additional pressure on trade surplus countries – such as Germany, Japan and China – to stay clear of any policies that depress their currencies, which naturally lends itself to a weak USD (and strong EUR, JPY and CNY) trading environment. And under this backdrop, we feel the trade-weighted US dollar could still fall another 5-10% over a multi-year period.
That’s a fair call about the direction Trump could take next, and one that will bring further volatility direct to FX markets.
Psychedelic chartist extraordinaire. Have your shades ready.
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”
Read how Ryan got into trading here
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”
Read how Ryan got into trading here
Latest posts by Ryan Littlestone (see all)
- The last NFP competition of 2022 - December 1, 2022
- Will this month’s US NFP be a horror show? - October 4, 2022
- US NFP competition – Do you think there’s going to be a turn in the US jobs market? - August 31, 2022
We at ForexFlow predicted that China would use the Yuan tool first to send a clear message to the US administration. Now we can predict that the Donald will do all he can to get his cheaper USD by fair or foul means. This is turning into a real bun-fight.
Considering it’s his rhetoric that’s helping cause some of these FX moves, that seems to go right over his head.