Yellen, Carney, Kuroda and Draghi all together now !
I’ll update was they go
Mario Draghi:
- Forward guidance has become a full policy instrument
- Fwd guidance succeeded to prevent to big an impact on long term rates from short term changes
- The experience has been successful
Janet Yellen:
- Appropriate path needs to be explained
- Forward guidance should be conditional on the outlook
- Maker participants look at the Summary of Economic Projections (Yellen surely does)
- Always try to emphasise economic conditionality in Forward Guidance
- Important to communicate the expected “gradual” rate path
- Fed’s various views avoid Groupthink
- Have experimented trying to produce consensus committee view but was unsuccessful
Haruhiko Kuroda: (He’s still a happy man watching him)
- Downturn of oil prices weighed on both actual inflation and expectations as Japan imports most of its energy.Therefor QQE got expanded
- Inflation expectations started to bring higher again after our YCC set in (well …)
- Forward guidance worked to some extend but inflation expectations looking kind of backwards
- Continue strong accommodative monetary policy to attain our goals
- Communication is the policy itself
Mark Carney:
- We most importantly communicate to the people we serve, the public (right ..)
- Using changing channels to communicate to reach the bigger audience : FT 30k readers, FB 30m in UK (Zückerberg sponsored ?)
- UK is still operating under exceptional circumstances
- Would like to see a reasonable transition period post-Brexit
There’s not going to be much to move the markets here , move on
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