And more importantly OPEC

  • At 15:30 gmt BOC releases its November Financial System Review, assessing risks and vulnerabilities to the Canadian system
  • Following the release, BOC Governor Poloz and Dep Gov will comment the report in a presser from 16:30 gmt.
  • The next major risk event though is the Opec meeting to start in Vienna 30th November ,
  • Opec Members want to force an extension to the production cuts, Russia, Iran and other Non-Opec members are not convinced
  • US is producing oil at never seen levels
  • A side note: NAFTA is still an additional risk factor, although not overly worried for Canada there, as US companies themselves are lobbying for a virtual status quo.

Let’s have a look at USDCAD: BOC surprised markets markets during the summer months with their rate hikes and upbeat economic assessments.
Lately there’s been some questions whether Poloz, Wilkins would scale back their bullishness somewhat, driving USDCAD back to the middle part of this year’s range.
In the mix oil came into play, stabilising at first, then rallying pretty fiercely back to the 59/60 resistance without breaking it Opec , led by Saudi Arabia will have some task on hands to align a global extension as Russia,leader of the Non-Opec pack, has repeatedly said they would hold back their decision till closer to current agreement’s end in March next year.
I reckon it’s all going to be a bit much to take for CAD . We’ve seen the speed at which USDCAD reacted yesterday as oil capped. That’s telling.
As nothing’s done yet, USDCAD respected the top of the slowly receding trend line at 1.2808/10 after bouncing of the support in the 1.2675/80 zone.I expect the bottom of the structure to hold and will be looking to buy dips USDCAD in the 1.2710-1.2680 area with a stop under 1.2660, or on a break of the 1.2810 line for a return to 1.2910 initially and if I’m right saying Opec meetings not to produce anything significant , back to above 1.30.

USDCAD D1 28.11.2017

USDCAD H4 28.11.2017

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