November 2017 UK CPI, PPI and RPI data report 12 December 2017

• Prior 3.0%
• 0.3% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.1%
• Core CPI 2.7% vs 2.7% exp y/y. Prior 2.7%
• 0.2% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.0%
• CPIH 2.8% vs 2.9% exp y/y. Prior 2.8%

RPI

• 3.9% vs 4.0% exp y/y. Prior 4.0%
• 0.2% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior 0.1%
• Ex-mortage interest payments 4.0% vs 4.2% prior y/y
• 0.1% vs 0.1% prior m/m

PPI (NSA)

• Input prices 7.3% vs 6.8% exp y/y. Prior 4.6%. revised to 4.8%
• 1.8% vs 1.5% exp m/m. Prior 1.0%
• Output prices 3.0% vs 3.0% exp y/y. Prior 2.8%
• 0.3% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior 0.2%
• Core output 2.2% vs 2.2% exp y/y. Prior 2.1%
• 0.2% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.1%

Overall, Pretty much banhg on the money for CPI but higher PPI. What’s notable is that input prices continue to outstrip output prices. That’s a disparity that will psuh prices higher in the long-run.

Form the ONS;

• Air fares and Computer games add to the upside pressure, computer equipment a detractor
• Annual PPI saw a rise above expectations with contribution from oil; base effects at play
• Crude oil was up 7.6% in Nov 2017 (highest since Dec 2016), up from 3.7% in Oct 2017
• Main driver from food price gains came from chocolate prices
• Food & non-alcoholic beverages is a high import intensive sector
• Annual house prices continue to grow at slower rate; London falling for second month

Also out;

• October 2017 HPI 4.55 vs 5.25 exp y/y. Prior 5.45. Revised to 4.8%

GBPUSD has run up to 1.3380 after the numbers but I don;t see anything here to bring a big change to traders thoughts. PPI looking very strong is about the only thing. I’ll be a seller if we do have a look at 1.3400.

Something to note also. With the North Sea pipeline problems reported today, we can expect to see inflation jump a couple of months down the line as any loss of oil and gas supplies from that will have to be bought in from elsewhere, and we’re already seeing prices rise markedly due to the cold weather the UK is currently having. Unfortunately we can’t put a finger on when we’ll see that but it will filter through at some point in the New Year.

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Ryan Littlestone

Psychedelic chartist extraordinaire. Have your shades ready.
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”

Read how Ryan got into trading here

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