USDHKD has been up to test multi-year highs on the back of year-end flows
Not a pair I often look at, it must be said but I’m never one to pass up on a potential trading opportunity. Overnight there was heavy buying in CNHHDK on the back of year-end flows.
That’s helped to send USDHKD up to test a very long-term strong resistance area.
Ordinarily I wouldn’t touch this pair, and I certainly don’t like getting too involved at this time of year but I’m liking the technical picture here, and the reasons behind the move. Even though I don’t like trading around this holiday, I do like to look closely at any moves that come out of the blue and move pairs against the current tech/fundamental picture. I’ve taken a small short up here, which I’ll run over the holidays (if nothing happens sooner). I’ll have a stop above the 7.84 level but I’ve no profit target in mind yet. I’d like to get somewhere sub 7.81/80.
Sometimes you see a level or area that just looks too good to pass up on and maybe this is one of those here. We’re not far off those tops so I’m happy to get in. If we had pulled back much further I would have considered it a missed boat and left it alone.
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u r smart…linked exchange rate makes a safe and sound christmas 🙂
I hope so Icy 😉
There is another similar opportunity: EURNOK is near multi-year high, even though crude oil is high and Norway CB is quite bullish….will probably hike next year from 0,5%.
That’s looking a bit more like a decent break through the 9.60 & 75 area.
Maybe, but It’s on historical high levels. I think with persistent scale-in short on this pair, it’s sure thing. Maybe you need just time….. Besides, it’s even positive carry… It can’t go higher forever….and it even lacks any fundamental reason for rising.
That’s a positive to the trade. If you’re catching a holiday related move then it could be a good trade. Like my USDHKD short though, if there’s any signs of trouble that the move is good and looking strong in the new year, be prepared to get out or reassess.
In the trough. Decline should be almost over now that the Norges bank is sounding more hawkish bringing forward it`s expectations recently for the first cash rate hike in a long time. Krone is very cheap and IF oil can maintain an upward bias, the hike expectations and oil futures expectations will finally take a hold while the ECB stands still on expectations next year. The current decline in Krona however, could continue very slowly through the early part of 2018. Patience because it will be a slow burner. A better way to express it might be on the USD funnily enough. USD should continue it`s decline through 2018 imho
Honestly, I am not in a camp of crowded belief, that EURUSD will continue up for sure. It heavely appreciated in 2017 and a lot is priced in already. Eurozone performance is currently so well, but ECB is still standing pat with negative deposit rate. If they haven’t finnished QE, then they won’t do either, if performance will start to deteriorate and that is serious threat IMO – from here it is very likely, that it starts to go down. In the meantime, FED is already at 1.5% and will probably continue to tighten, not to mention influence of tax-reform. This and the fact, that EURNOK short is positive carry and is at historical high level makes this trade much higher probability trade. Moreover, Norges bank has EURNOK as a benchmark and will hike earlier, if NOK will weaken even more against EUR.
I’m also dubious of much further gains in the euro, at least until nearer Sep 2018, or if we see inflation rocket. It’s still got the ability to rally on the ECB but I can see it treading water a lot next year.
If this says even EURUSD long guru…….:). So, what is your plan for your long EURUSD trade, Ryan ? Since, if you expect ranging, then significant negative swap is increasing or no ?
The swap is an issue. I want to see how things start off in Jan. If we see USD weakness, we could then have another move to and through 1.20, and then the additional profit will take care of the swap. If USD looks strong, or we do just range, I’ll think about taking profit on the balance and then moving on to the next trade.
Basically I don’t want to be sitting in a sideways trade that just burns money.
Next week I have some stuff to do, first one what I told U about bitcoin and yesterday sth I read about where is the ecb money… quite interesting to see that only 50% has been put in real enconomy. I can write in open office, do U have a nice translator program?
Only google but feel free and we’ll find a way.
Is it not a pair which range is Under control? Between one and other level?
between 7.75 and 7.85
It has been for as long as I can remember Stephane. Some years ago, the fifteen minute chart range would almost equal the spread for long periods, making it difficult to get in on a trade unless you were sure price was going to break top or bottom of the range
4 years ago I was trading this pair for a while looking for the bottom and the top. I have just searched what I found about this one in 2013. It seems that there is a range between 7.75 – 7.85. But I gave up…. too slow for me 😉
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c2ecd6c543f872c25719979d648f9d629cba14822870a5742f9bbc4cd7012c88.jpg
sorry in french one more time….
Oh yes, you’re right, I forgot about that. I might move my stop to 7.86 then 😉
yap…. I will short it, just for fun…. it’s Christmas time right? hehehe
Haha, it’s sucked you in too.